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OSINT

Ambassador Geng Shuang

According to Ambassador Geng Shuang of the Peoples Republic of China, in his remarks published in RT's 20 May 2024 article, China warns US over Ukraine, "Washington is deliberately prolonging the Ukraine conflict and seeking to profit from it, while 'smearing' Beijing with false accusations." He went on to say, "China is not the creator, or a party to the Ukraine crisis. Nor have we provided lethal weapons to any party in the conflict. We have not done… what the US has done, which is to deliberately prolong the fighting and profit from the crisis. We will not do that."

According to NOVA.news article published on 25 April 2024, "A Russian cargo ship carrying weapons from North Korea sits in a Chinese shipyard." They have pictures!



The Students of NOVA-News are not the only ones. 25 April 2024 Reuters posted,
"Exclusive: China harbors ship tied to North Korea-Russia arms transfers, satellite images show."


When I was taking my lectures to become certified as a Level 1 Intelligence Analysis this exact scenario came up. That gives me some additional points to consider:
  • How deep is she riding in the water (weapons are heavy)?
  • After sailing from China to Russia what activity will we witness if it was a shipment of arms?
There are a few other points but they are negative. If there is no additional military activity around the ship upon docking then it is a pretty good indication that she doesn't have weapons. Legitimately that is the kind of things one has to look for. If there is an immediate uptick in military activity, it is reasonable to conclude that she was full of arms. Since we are limited to Open Source Intelligence, let's see what we can find.

Her name is Angara. We do have information on where she is (see link in name of ship). We are missing Port information after 26 April 2024; the site reads, "China has provided a berth for the 'Angara', which is under US sanctions and transports weapons, in Zhoushan." Due to the ships history it is reasonable to consider this a strong indication that China is helping North Korea arm Russia, or China is arming Russia. We are not, however, seeing when Angara left Zhoushan, if she has.

I suspect it would be a good idea to seize the ship on the high seas (see Law of the Sea) if she leaves Chinese waters, and hold her until hostilities between Russia, and everyone else, comes to an end. However, for the sake of the discussion about China's culpability in the Russia invasion of, and ongoing war against, Ukraine we have to agree with Queen Gertrude in Hamlet by the Bard himself, William Shakespeare, Ambassador Geng Shuang "doth protest too much, methinks." To put it diplomatically, the good gentleman is full of nonsense.


It's About Damn Time



The time has come,' the Walrus said,
      To talk of many things:
Of shoes — and ships — and sealing-wax —
      Of cabbages — and kings —
And why the sea is boiling hot —
      And whether pigs have wings.'


In the 1940s, the United States decisively defeated the Japanese, showcasing American strength and resolve. In Korea, the U.S. pushed back the Chinese and North Koreans, asserting dominance and securing the 38th Parallel. While some may debate the outcome in Vietnam, the fact remains that over two million enemy combatants were eliminated, a testament to American power.


Despite the challenges posed by China's vast numbers and equipment, their questionable quality and lack of combat experience since 1949 raise doubts about their true military capabilities. The Chinese Communist Party's questionable tactics and deceitful practices further cast a shadow over their supposed strength.


During Desert Storm, initial skepticism about the fighting prowess of Vietnam-era American forces proved unfounded as they demonstrated their skill and tenacity on the battlefield. Recent reports from MIT* indicate a long history of potential clashes between the U.S. and China, with rumors now circulating about China's development of a drone aircraft carrier to challenge the U.S. Navy.


But let's be clear: no matter the advancements or boasts from China, a well-placed strike can still send their high-tech vessels to the depths where they belong. American strength and ingenuity will always prevail over hollow threats and grandiose displays of power.


Current events sideline


In recent years, the development and deployment of kamikaze drones have become a notable trend in military technology, particularly in conflicts such as the ongoing Ukraine/Russia conflict. Both sides have utilized kamikaze drones since 2022, showcasing a shift towards this specific type of drone warfare. These drones, designed for autonomous operations and often used for targeted strikes, represent a new dimension in modern warfare.


Moreover, the United States has also made strides in integrating kamikaze drone capabilities into its military operations. Notably, on July 10, 2023, the US Army announced the development of man-portable tank-killing kamikaze drones, with a notable example being the LASSO (Low Altitude Stalking and Strike Ordnance) drone. This innovative drone system is designed to provide soldiers with a powerful and versatile tool for engaging enemy armored vehicles in the field.


Additionally, on February 8, 2024, the US Special Operations Command (SOCOM) revealed plans to assess air-launched kamikaze drones, signaling a growing interest in leveraging this technology for tactical advantages.


Looking back at history, it is important to note that the Japanese Kamikazes during World War II did not stop the US advance towards Japan in 1945. As such, the use of kamikaze drones or similar autonomous systems in modern warfare may not necessarily impede military advancements in the future, such as in 2045 or even sooner.


Overall, the emergence of kamikaze drones in various military contexts underscores the evolving nature of warfare and the increasing significance of unmanned systems in modern combat scenarios. As nations continue to invest in and deploy these advanced technologies, it is essential to consider the strategic implications and ethical considerations associated with their use on the battlefield.


Shop Talk
We have a new Spokes-model at CliffPotts.Org. She is our Ad Hock X Post Administrator, and General Internet Assistant. Her name is Ellen Grant, it is El for short. She is a great addition to our team. You can see her at the X site. Feel free to stop by, and say, "Hi."


*Liff, Adam P., and G. John Ikenberry. “Racing toward Tragedy? China’s Rise, Military Competition in the Asia Pacific, and the Security Dilemma.” International Security, vol. 39, no. 2, 2014, pp. 52–91. JSTOR, http://www.jstor.org/stable/24480583. Accessed 26 May 2024.

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