Asian Influence

In the '00s, many observers (professional and amateur) wrung their hands over the threat of an economically rising China. Quite a few people proclaimed that China owned the U.S.A. Asian Influence was written to explore the issue of China as an economic superpower.

It begins with a discussion about Japan in the 1990. There too is a warning that was no headed before 2007.

When the U.S. economy slid into the Peace Dividend[1] recession in the late 1980s and early 1990s, following the fall of the Soviet Union, Japan’s economy faltered. The Japanese asset price bubble burst in 1990.

It cannot be overstated that Wealth, Women and War pointed to the obviously teetering house of cards in the USA.

You can purchase a copy of Wealth, Women, and War, but I would not suggest that you do that unless you need a hard copy for some reason. WordTechs Press released it back to me in May 2014, and I am making it available in blog form. Occupy asked that knowledge be shared, and in solidarity with Occupy Wall Street that is what I am doing. The only thing I can ask of you now is that you pay attention; we are not out of the woods yet.

Cliff Potts

September 25, 2014

Asian Influence

Japan, with a booming economy, and granted a Most Favored Nation status with the U.S., attempted to establish production facilities in the United States in the 1980s. However, the Japanese culture was unfamiliar with the individualism of the U.S. citizens of the 1970s and 1980s. While any criticism of the Japanese or Japanese management style was met with cries of “White Racism” in the various trade journals, Japan’s own critique of the U.S. as being a “Mongrel Nation” slipped quietly from the front pages. This was due in large part to the efforts of Robert Angel, a paid lobbyist for the Japanese government. He coined the term “Japan Bashing” to discredit critics of the Japanese imperialistic approach to trade.

While Japan enjoyed wide open markets in the United States, Japanese markets were closed to a free-flow of goods from the U.S. This remains a running argument in academic journals, as Japan is sited as importing more goods per capita than the U.S. has imported from Japan. There may be some validity to this observation as Japan’s population is approximately half that of the U.S. today.

When the U.S. economy slid into the Peace Dividend[1] recession in the late 1980s and early 1990s, following the fall of the Soviet Union, Japan’s economy faltered. The Japanese asset price bubble burst in 1990.

This is another lesson concerning globalization. Any nation which produces goods specifically for consumption by another nation is liable to have its economy falter if the customer nation is no longer willing or able to consume the goods. Japan had done a poor job at developing its own consumer markets. While it did a phenomenal job of securing employment for its citizens, many of whom were still stunned by the abject poverty following World War Two, Japanese business could not be talked into spending the local economy back into prosperity. Even after the Japanese asset price bubble burst, Japanese citizens retained sufficient economic resources in liquid assets to recover from the economic slump. The same character traits, thrift and savings, which allowed them to recover after the war, stalled their economy during the 1990s. In today’s globalized economy, there is much talk about China’s rise to economic power. However, it is currently uncertain how well they are developing the internal market to consume their own goods and services. If China’s economic boom is fully dependent on the U.S., or a Western, economy then an economic slow down in the West will devastate China as it did Japan in 1990. As sited in Morris Berman’s Dark Ages America, China’s approach to internal economic development is an expression of Social Darwinism – a current trend in the Free-Trade policies even in the US. This does not bode well for the internal picture of the Chinese economy. It cannot be overemphasized that The People’s Republic of China is still a communist nation; effectively it is a national corporation where business are engaged in joint ventures with the government itself. While China may look good in the short term future, it is hard to predict what will occur over a longer period of time.

In A.M Sperber’s Murrow: His Life and Times, it is sited that Edward R. Murrow, the voice of CBS during World War Two, worked hard as a young man to persuade colleges to hire Jewish scientists and other intellectual dissidents from Nazi Germany before the war broke out. Mr. Gates may be attempting to rescue the best intellectual assets of the world before regional chaos hits, by requesting more H-1B visas from Congress. Under the H-1B Visa program, recipients do not have to apply for political asylum and don’t have to reveal the true nature of their move to U.S. protection. This also creates a pool of resources in the U.S. to pressure for change in the country of origin should that be needed. This, of course, is pure speculation, and as stated in the Wikipedia article on the H-1B visa, “Economist Milton Friedman has called the program a form of subsidy.”[2] It does displace technical and engineering expertise in the U.S. and will remain a sore spot in U.S. labor relations in the foreseeable future.

China is no where near as stable as we have been led to believe. According to reports which have trickled through the broadcast of the BBC via NPR, recent Chinese defectors have warned the West of the risk of investing in China. The best summary is that China is unstable; however, the details are skeletal at best.

China seems to heading toward some kind of economic crunch point not dissimilar to Japan’s crisis in 1990. Two factors which are known are the threat of overheating the economy, and oddly enough, for a nation of 1.3 Billion people, a labor shortage.[3] China’s population is growing old and a result of the zero population growth policies since 1979 (People's Republic of China's one-child policy), there is a shortage of young workers to fill slots at the entry levels of the economy.[4] There are serious issues concerning China’s handling of Chinese dissidents, as well, according to a report co-authored by former Canadian cabinet minister David Kilgour and prominent rights lawyer David Matas released in July of 2006 stating that, “Chinese political prisoners, particularly Falun Gong[5] adherents, are being 'harvested' for the lucrative sale of organs to foreign buyers”.[6]

There are unsubstantiated reports that the PRC (People’s Republic of China) has transferred military equipment to provincial riot police to quell uprisings in various regions within China. The Chinese communist government may not be acting with astute wisdom in this period of economic boom. While all these charges and observations may seem somewhat sensationalized, there is an economic reality that cannot be overlooked: An economic boom is usually followed by a bust. There is no general indication how the current Chinese political culture will address the inevitable bust when one occurs.

India is equally threatened. Bangalor, the hub of India’s technology and science based industries, is located on the Deccan Plateau in central India. It is venerable to aggression from a nuclear-armed Pakistan and a potentially unstable China. India has become one of the gathering points for western economic diversification. The net domestic product of Bangalor alone is estimated at 51.9 billion U.S. dollars.[7]

The economic viability of India may be its saving grace as far as China is concerned. China needs India as a gateway for further development. However, there is a highly volatile situation: Kashmir.

As was summarized in Radicals, Religion, and Revelation, “Kashmir is an 80,000 square mile region sandwiched between Pakistan and India. A Hindu monarch annexed this Islamic state into India. The fifty-year fight over this disputed claim has been marked by the exchange of artillery shells between the two nations. The world will likely see the first use of nuclear weapons since World War II over this stretch of hilly land, each nation firing at the other’s most strategic target.”[8]

According to the article on Sino-Indian relations updated on April 30, 2007 in Wikipedia, “In November 2006, China and India had a verbal spat over claim of the north-east Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh. India claimed that China was occupying 38,000 square kilometers of its territory in Kashmir, while China claimed the whole of Arunachal Pradesh as its own.[9]

In a related article on Arunachal Pradesh, “The Chinese Ambassador to India, Sun Yuxi has publicly stated in India: "In our position, the whole of the state of Arunachal Pradesh is Chinese territory. And Tawang is only one of the places in it. We are claiming all of that. That is our position."[10] India's External Affairs Minister, Pranab Mukherjee, has countered that statement by saying that "Arunachal is an integral part of India."[11] India and China are currently engaged in talks to resolve the boundary question. Last year, both countries signed the "Political Parameters and Guiding Principles" document to peacefully resolve this issue.”[12]

These events pit India against both China and Pakistan. The current President of Pakistan is Pervez Musharraf. He is a moderate Muslim in a nation which has a strong radical Islamic population. He has survived two separate assassination attempts. Both attempts bore the signature tactics of the Islamic radicals: suicide bombers. If, and it may be a big “if”, the radical Islamic forces succeed in taking over Pakistan, they could inflict a serious blow to the economy of the United States by looking no further than central India. A conventional bombardment of Bangalor, let alone a nuclear strike, would seriously damage all western economies.

Under the ideal of globalization such threats are dismissed. History, however, shows what is good for business is not necessarily good for regional politics. In many respects, the destruction of World Trade Center towers in New York City did not do much to improve the prospects for peace through globalization. What the attack did achieve was to enhance the image of Al-Qaeda as a political force of liberation from Western Imperialism in Islamic lands, and created Osama bin Laden as a folk hero in Afghanistan, Iran, Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. Local politics are dismissed at the jeopardy of the corporation, even if the corporation’s headquarters is thousands of miles away from the instable region.

The business community declared that global war was not possible in the late 1800s and early 1900s because it would disrupt world trade. This was at the same time that Europe was engaged in an arms race. The same theme was being discussed before World War Two erupted. Once again, we hear this same argument. Today, it is called globalization. We hear that our business policies will prevail in bringing wayward nations into the global community. Commerce will pave the way to global harmony. This is being sung while Bill Gates tries to rescue the brain trust of India’s and China’s Information Technology fields, at the expense of the U.S. IT professionals, while the U.S. rattles the saber at Iran.

China Can Say No or The China That Can Say No: Political and Emotional Choices in the post Cold-War era (Pinyin: Zhongguo keyi shuo bu: Lengzhanhou shidai de zhengzhi yu qinggan jueze) is a 1996 Chinese non-fiction bestseller written and edited by Zhang Zangzang, Zhang Xiaobo, Song Qiang, Tang Zhengyu, Qiao Bian and Gu Qingsheng. It was published in China and strongly expresses Chinese nationalism. The book, which is modeled on The Japan That Can Say No, argues that many "fourth-generation" Chinese embraced Western values too strongly in the 1980s and disregarded their heritage and background. At least two of the authors participated in the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989. It specifically criticizes physicist Fang Lizhi and journalist Liu Binyan.

The book describes a disenchantment with the U.S. among the Chinese beginning in the 1990s, especially after the U.S. adopted a China containment strategy, rejected China's bid for the World Trade Organization, and worked against China's bid for the 2000 Summer Olympics. The authors criticize U.S. foreign policy and American individualism; they claim that China is used as a scapegoat for American problems.

The text also focuses on Japan, which is accused of being a client state of the U.S. and argues that Japan should not get a seat on the United Nations Security Council.[13]

[1] peace dividend, Definition: The reallocation of spending from military purposes to peacetime purposes, such as housing, education, and social projects. ("peace dividend." InvestorWords.Com. WebFinance, Inc, 2008. 7 Mar. 2008 http://www.investorwords.com/3644/peace_dividend.html).

[2] H-1B visa. (2008, June 17). In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved 01:56, June 18, 2008, from http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=H-1B_visa&oldid=219840555

[3] Economy of the People's Republic of China. (2007, April 29). In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved 17:27, May 2, 2007, from http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Economy_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China&oldid=126921841

[4] Demography of the People's Republic of China. (2007, April 29). In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved 17:27, May 2, 2007, from http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Demography_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China&oldid=126910697

[5] falun gong - a spiritual movement that began in China in the latter half of the 20th century and is based on Buddhist and Taoist teachings and practices ("falun gong." WordNet 3.0, Farlex clipart collection. 2003-2007. Princeton University, Clipart.com, Farlex Inc. 7 Mar. 2008 http://www.thefreedictionary.com/falun+gong)

[6] Human rights in the People's Republic of China. (2007, May 2). In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved 17:22, May 2, 2007, from http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Human_rights_in_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China&oldid=127677276

[7] Economy of Bangalore. (2007, May 2). In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved 17:46, May 2, 2007, from http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Economy_of_Bangalore&oldid=127587393

[8] Potts, Clifford A. Radicals, Religion, and Revelation. Dallas: WordTechs Press, 2008. p. 65

[9] Sino-Indian relations.” (2007, April 30). In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved 17:56, May 2, 2007, from http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Sino-Indian_relations&oldid=127013002

[10] Arunachal Pradesh is our territory: Chinese envoy. (2006, November 14). Rediff India Abroad . Retrieved June 17, 2008, from http://www.rediff.com/news/2006/nov/14china.htm

[11] Singh, O. (2006, November 28). Arunachal integral part of India: Pranab in Parliament. Rediff India Abroad . Retrieved June 17, 2008, from http://www.rediff.com/news/2006/nov/28jintao.htm

[12] Arunachal Pradesh. (2007, April 29). In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved 18:04, May 2, 2007, from http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Arunachal_Pradesh&oldid=126924899

[13] China Can Say No. (2007, April 12). In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved 19:28, May 1, 2007, from http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=China_Can_Say_No&oldid=122202767

WPS SITREP

Search This Blog

Asian Influence

Comments

Post a Comment