The Fourth Turning
Back in 1997, I came across The Fourth Turning ( William Strauss and Neil Howe, Broadway Books). This work by William Strauss and Neil Howe is considered controversial. From the standpoint of history, it is a valid representation of patterns. Roughly every 80 years the Anglo-Saxon culture goes through a crisis period. That Saxon influence in our culture may be a key in understanding what is happening in the United States today. The Fourth Turning’s prediction is based on each “season” within a cycle being 20 years in length. That is based on each generation reaching the age of majority at age 20. However, my calculations are based on the generations reaching the age of majority at the current age of 18. This began with the Baby Boomers, and continues to the current generation.
Crisis Mentality
According to The Fourth Turning, the Anglo-Saxon culture is due for a crisis in 2010. Taking the key parts of their data, I brought the inception of the crisis time to 2001. Born in 1945, the Baby Boomers begin to reach a majority in 1965. Born in 1965, Generation X comes to majority in 1983. Born in 1983, the Millennium generation comes to majority in 2001, and the Surviving Generation, born in 2001 and after, begins to come to majority in 2019. Because we are a constitutional democratic republic, the age at which a generation begins to have influence on our culture is decreed to be the legal voting age: 18 as of right now. We are currently in 2006. If my understanding of this dynamic is correct, we should be past this crisis mentality in only thirteen more years. I look forward to saying adieu to it.
Hysterical Events
I don’t see the events that are happening around us as an actual crisis; I see the conservatives trying to push hysteria. It looks like an overreaction to stimuli. This is unusual for classically stoic conservatives. We have:
All of this is evidenced in screaming headlines, at one time or another, that demand we fear the future for our nation. To me it all looks like overreaction and opportunism gone to the Xtreams (that is not a typo) in the face of the stimuli of historical events. I am not too sure that should not be written “hysterical events.”
Better Angels of Our Nature
Rather than trust our better natures, we seem to be in a panic mode. We seem to refuse to engage the challenges of the future. We seem to lack any kind of confidence that we can live up to the greatness of our humanity. It is as if we are afraid that when the sun goes down over the far horizon, we will not see light again. It seems as if factions want us quaking in a primal fear of the darkness. We seem to be unwilling or unable, to trust one another anymore. There are indeed many who are using this fear for their own gains. We do seem to have a bit of a mess on our hands, but it looks like it is a mess of our own making.
The table of the politics of the neo-conservative Right has to be set in order for us to feast on the enlightenment that should follow. I have my suspicions that we are faced with all these tales of horror around the world so that, like a revival meeting, we will be scared into accepting the god-king Jesus into our individual lives. This is a basic evangelist tactic. In the 1970s, before LayHaye and prior to Jerry B. Jenkins bringing out his Left Behind series, there were a series of films on the same topic.
They all had one purpose: To panic people into “coming to Jesus” before it was “too late.” All of that is coming out of Texas, along with Bush and Chaney. I have a nagging notion that we are being subjected to the same intent in today’s headlines. It is as if we are in a national revival meeting.
In his First Inaugural Address(Quote DB, Lincoln's First Inaugural Address, http://www.quotedb.com/speeches/lincoln-first-inaugural), Abraham Lincoln, the first Republican president, proclaimed:
We failed to do so in 1861, and if that is any indication of what is to come, we will fail to do so now. However, history is only an indicator of what has happened. It is not a dictator of what can happen. We are the captains of our own fate. Only the division that we have among ourselves as citizens of the United States can allow our enemies to vanquish us. There is no other threat greater than our own division.
Back in 1997, I came across The Fourth Turning ( William Strauss and Neil Howe, Broadway Books). This work by William Strauss and Neil Howe is considered controversial. From the standpoint of history, it is a valid representation of patterns. Roughly every 80 years the Anglo-Saxon culture goes through a crisis period. That Saxon influence in our culture may be a key in understanding what is happening in the United States today. The Fourth Turning’s prediction is based on each “season” within a cycle being 20 years in length. That is based on each generation reaching the age of majority at age 20. However, my calculations are based on the generations reaching the age of majority at the current age of 18. This began with the Baby Boomers, and continues to the current generation.
Crisis Mentality
According to The Fourth Turning, the Anglo-Saxon culture is due for a crisis in 2010. Taking the key parts of their data, I brought the inception of the crisis time to 2001. Born in 1945, the Baby Boomers begin to reach a majority in 1965. Born in 1965, Generation X comes to majority in 1983. Born in 1983, the Millennium generation comes to majority in 2001, and the Surviving Generation, born in 2001 and after, begins to come to majority in 2019. Because we are a constitutional democratic republic, the age at which a generation begins to have influence on our culture is decreed to be the legal voting age: 18 as of right now. We are currently in 2006. If my understanding of this dynamic is correct, we should be past this crisis mentality in only thirteen more years. I look forward to saying adieu to it.
Hysterical Events
I don’t see the events that are happening around us as an actual crisis; I see the conservatives trying to push hysteria. It looks like an overreaction to stimuli. This is unusual for classically stoic conservatives. We have:
- The War on Terror
- SARS
- Avian Flu
- West Nile Virus
- The invasion of Iraq
- Iran’s Nuclear ambition
- Inflation of basic commodities
- Peek Oil
- Hurricane Katrina
- DHS/FEMA incompetence
- Global Warming
- Mad Cow Disease
- The neo-conservative Right
All of this is evidenced in screaming headlines, at one time or another, that demand we fear the future for our nation. To me it all looks like overreaction and opportunism gone to the Xtreams (that is not a typo) in the face of the stimuli of historical events. I am not too sure that should not be written “hysterical events.”
Better Angels of Our Nature
Rather than trust our better natures, we seem to be in a panic mode. We seem to refuse to engage the challenges of the future. We seem to lack any kind of confidence that we can live up to the greatness of our humanity. It is as if we are afraid that when the sun goes down over the far horizon, we will not see light again. It seems as if factions want us quaking in a primal fear of the darkness. We seem to be unwilling or unable, to trust one another anymore. There are indeed many who are using this fear for their own gains. We do seem to have a bit of a mess on our hands, but it looks like it is a mess of our own making.
The table of the politics of the neo-conservative Right has to be set in order for us to feast on the enlightenment that should follow. I have my suspicions that we are faced with all these tales of horror around the world so that, like a revival meeting, we will be scared into accepting the god-king Jesus into our individual lives. This is a basic evangelist tactic. In the 1970s, before LayHaye and prior to Jerry B. Jenkins bringing out his Left Behind series, there were a series of films on the same topic.
They all had one purpose: To panic people into “coming to Jesus” before it was “too late.” All of that is coming out of Texas, along with Bush and Chaney. I have a nagging notion that we are being subjected to the same intent in today’s headlines. It is as if we are in a national revival meeting.
In his First Inaugural Address(Quote DB, Lincoln's First Inaugural Address, http://www.quotedb.com/speeches/lincoln-first-inaugural), Abraham Lincoln, the first Republican president, proclaimed:
The mystic chords of memory, stretching from every battlefield and patriot grave to every living heart and hearthstone all over this broad land, will yet swell the chorus of the Union, when again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature.For The Record
We failed to do so in 1861, and if that is any indication of what is to come, we will fail to do so now. However, history is only an indicator of what has happened. It is not a dictator of what can happen. We are the captains of our own fate. Only the division that we have among ourselves as citizens of the United States can allow our enemies to vanquish us. There is no other threat greater than our own division.
Conspirators, Confederates, and Cronies was written as a blog in 2006 following the release of American Theocracy: The Peril and Politics of Radical Religion, Oil, and Borrowed Money in the 21st Century by Kevin Phillips. If you like what you are reading, if you want to support the ongoing work, please share it.
Thank you,
Cliff Potts -- May 10, 2014.
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